Analyses and Reports

O que o topo realmente puxa — Paraíba The "coattail" myth in Paraíba, tested against 30 years of election data (TSE 1994–2022) — and what it projects for the alliance's caucus in 2026.

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O que o topo realmente puxa — Paraná The "coattail" myth in Paraná, tested against 30 years of election data (TSE 1994–2022) — and what it projects for the alliance's caucus in 2026.

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O que o topo realmente puxa — Rio Grande do Sul The "coattail" myth in Rio Grande do Sul, tested against 30 years of election data (TSE 1994–2022) — and what it projects for the alliance's caucus in 2026.

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O que o topo realmente puxa — Santa Catarina The "coattail" myth in Santa Catarina, tested against 30 years of election data (TSE 1994–2022) — and what it projects for the alliance's caucus in 2026.

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O que o topo realmente puxa — São Paulo The "coattail" myth in São Paulo, tested against 30 years of election data (TSE 1994–2022) — and what it projects for the alliance's caucus in 2026.

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Municípios-pêndulo — Bahia Bahia's 8 pendulum cities — 605,000 voters who switched sides over two decades and decide the close races (presidential runoffs, TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — Ceará In Ceará, the presidential runoff map closed shut: the electorate consolidated on one side, with no cities swinging between left and right (TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — Goiás Goiás's 70 pendulum cities — 572,000 voters who switched sides over two decades and decide the close races (presidential runoffs, TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — Minas Gerais Minas Gerais's 248 pendulum cities — 3.9 million voters who switched sides over two decades and decide the close races (presidential runoffs, TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — Pará Pará's 35 pendulum cities — 2.2 million voters who switched sides over two decades and decide the close races (presidential runoffs, TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — Paraíba Paraíba's 12 pendulum cities — 1.0 million voters (31.9% of the state, including João Pessoa and Campina Grande) who switched sides over two decades and decide the close races (presidential runoffs, TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — Pernambuco Pernambuco's 3 pendulum cities — 86,000 voters who switched sides over two decades and decide the close races (presidential runoffs, TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — Piauí In Piauí, the presidential runoff map closed shut: the electorate consolidated on one side, with no cities swinging between left and right (TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — Paraná Paraná's 98 pendulum cities — 941,000 voters who switched sides over two decades and decide the close races (presidential runoffs, TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro's 27 pendulum cities — 1.4 million voters who switched sides over two decades and decide the close races (presidential runoffs, TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — Rio Grande do Sul Rio Grande do Sul's 208 pendulum cities — 4.2 million voters who switched sides over two decades and decide the close races (presidential runoffs, TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — Santa Catarina Santa Catarina's 46 pendulum cities — 488,000 voters who switched sides over two decades and decide the close races (presidential runoffs, TSE 2002–2022).

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Municípios-pêndulo — São Paulo São Paulo's 143 pendulum cities — 14.2 million voters who switched sides over two decades and decide the close races (presidential runoffs, TSE 2002–2022).

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